A Brief History of H1N1 and How it Compares to COVID-19
An apple to oranges comparison…but that isn’t stopping folks from making it. So let’s look at how they compare.
An apple to oranges comparison…but that isn’t stopping folks from making it. So let’s look at how they compare.
The COVID-19 pandemic is the second pandemic in 12 years. The last one was the H1N1 that began in 2009. Lately, conservative pundits have been braying about President Obama’s handling of H1N1 to deflect responsibility from President Trump’s EPIC bumbling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since he was sworn in, President Trump and his pack of sycophants and minions have gone to extreme lengths to divert any blame from Trump and back to Obama (or anyone).
Which is nothing more than the classic “I’m rubber, you’re glue” defense…which tracks for President Trump and he and his administration’s childish behavior.
I’m a Democrat and very far from a President Obama apologist. There are MANY reasons to be critical of his eight years in office. His handling of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 is not one of them. With that said, neither is being a Democrat or black.
I wish that Trump and co. would just admit they hate Barack Obama because he’s black.
At least that would be honest.
I’m Not A Scientist
As I see it, any comparison between COVID-19 and H1N1 is an apple to oranges comparison.
According to LiveScience.com, the 2009 H1N1 virus was the second H1N1 pandemic the world had seen…the first being the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. COVID-19 is not the same.
However, there are similarities between the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic:
On April 24, 2009 — nine days after the initial detection of H1N1, the CDC (Center for Disease Control) uploaded genetic sequences of the virus.
On Jan. 12, 2020 — five days after the novel coronavirus was isolated, Chinese scientists published the virus’ genetic sequence.
The U.S. declared the swine flu a public health emergency 11 days after the first confirmed U.S. case in 2009.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declared COVID-19 a public health emergency 11 days later the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S was identified in 2020.
That’s where the similarities end.
Most importantly to note is that in 2009, while the internet was in full swing social media as we understand it now was in its infancy. Facebook and Twitter didn’t carry the weight they do today…and Instagram didn’t emerge until October of 2010.
More simply, they weren’t considered to be media outlets as they are now.
That’s important because corporate media in 2009 didn’t need to react in real-time to claims by…well, by virtually everyone with a computer…around the world. For better or worse (mostly worse), that’s no longer the case. That matters.
SOME HIGH-LEVEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN H1N1 & COVID-19:
H1N1 — Within four weeks of detecting H1N1 in 2009, the CDC began releasing health supplies from their stockpile & most states in the U.S. had labs capable of diagnosing H1N1 without verification by a CDC test.
H1N1 — Response activities were organized into a team structure with different areas of focus including but not limited to: surveillance, laboratory issues, communications, at-risk populations, antiviral medications, vaccines, and traveler’s health issues. As the outbreak unfolded, team structures and staffing were periodically assessed for functionality and utility.
COVID-19 — In early February, the CDC began sending diagnostic kits to about 100 public-health laboratories across the country — most of the labs received faulty kits, which caused a major delay in combating the virus.
COVID-19 — What testing did take place had to be done exclusively at the CDC headquarters until the agency could develop and send out replacement kits — meaning virus continued to spread undetected for weeks.
By March 10, seven weeks after the first confirmed case in the U.S., some of those labs are already running out of supplies to run the tests. This is to say nothing about the flaws in the testing process —“like not relying on the World Health Organization’s coronavirus test and problems with the test kits” — have cost the U.S. valuable time and left the country with a haphazard testing process from coast to coast.
It’s not an understatement to refer to the handling of testing to diagnose COVID-19 as a clusterfuck. That was not the case for H1N1.
Now if you look at the CDC Historical Archive of the H1N1 virus, you’ll notice even more differences.
It’s worth noting:
In the U.S. between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimated a mortality rate of about 0.02% for the H1N1 virus.
To date, in the U.S. the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 2%. If you’re bad as bad at math as I am, you should note that 2% is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 0.02%.
Again according to the CDC Historical Archive, there were 60.8 million cases of H1N1, with over 274,000 hospitalizations.
According to the Center for System Sciences and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, to date, there have been almost 600,000 confirmed cases in the U.S.
While the confirmed cases of COVID-19 is significantly less (currently), it’s tracking to be close to that, if not surpass it, provided COVID-19 dissipates within 12 months.
VACCINE
Five months after being deemed a pandemic, on September 15, 2009, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced its approval of four 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccines…with a fifth vaccine one month later.
Outlets are reporting that it may take up to 18 months to create a vaccine for COVID-19…and that may be the best-case scenario.
Admittedly, H1N1 was not entirely a new virus, so there was marginally more historically relevant research available.
MORTALITY RATE:
There were about 12,500 deaths from the H1N1 virus over 12 months from April 2009 — April 2010.
As of 4.13.20, there have been 24,685 deaths from COVID-19. The first COVID-19 death was reported on or around February 25, 2020, in Washington state.
Here again, if you’re bad at math like me, that’s almost TWICE AS MANY IN +/- SIX WEEKS!
President Obama was very good at delegating because he was intelligent and had surrounded himself with intelligent and trustworthy individuals advising him. I don’t think that is the case currently.
It also helped that Obama doesn’t suffer from Narcissistic Personality Disorder or a compulsion to insert himself into every single thing but then eschew ANY responsibility such as President Trump.
If you’re even remotely objective, the comparison between H1N1 and COVID-19 is illogical. Which makes any argument about President Obama’s handling of that pandemic versus President Trump’s systematic inability to recognize any sense of reason and accept responsibility.
Also in the CDC Historical Archive:
The CDC response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was led by science and continually evolved to meet the nation’s needs as events unfolded and as more information became available.
Does anyone think that is happening currently?
In sum, the next time someone wants to throw the “What about Obama and H1N1?!” your way, here’s what you need to do — first, sigh and then roll your eyes and sight the following facts:
12,500 people died in 12 months with H1N1
26,000 people have died in +/- six weeks from COVID-19
Five vaccines were developed within seven months for H1N1
Still questionable about what stage a vaccine for COVID-19 is at and when it could even be implemented
The mortality rate for H1N1 was about 0.02%
The mortality rate for COVID-19 is currently 2% (that’s much more)
To be fair, pandemics are challenging for the best of leaders and administrations.
This can be seen in the information about the H1N1 pandemic from 2009.
I think it’s safe to say that we’re not operating with the best of leaders and administrations during the current COVID-19 pandemic.
When the history of all of this is written, I can’t imagine that the CDC Historical Archive of COVID-19 is going to read in the same way as it does for H1N1.